Producción CyT
Artículo
Autoría
Ramon de Elia
;
Thomas Haiden
;
Cynthia Matsudo
;
OTERO, FEDERICO
;
Estíbaliz Gascón
;
Lucía Castro
;
Linus Magnusson
;
Alejandro Godoy
;
Caio Coelho
;
Hernán Bechis
;
Barbara Casati
;
Daniela D' Amen
;
Ariane Frassoni
;
Santiago Galgano
;
Marisol Osman
;
Soledad Osores
;
Silvina Righetti
;
Paola Salio
;
Marcos Saucedo
;
Yanina García Skabar
;
Pablo Spennemann
;
José Luis Stell
;
Nils Wedi
Fecha
2025
Editorial y Lugar de Edición
ECMWF
Revista
European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting
- ISSN 1012-6899
ECMWF
ECMWF
ISSN
1012-6899
Resumen
Información suministrada por el agente en
SIGEVA
South America has received less attention from the global numerical weather prediction communitythan many other regions. This is reflected, for example, in its absence as a region in the standardisedWMO verification score exchange. As a result, global modelling centres may have missed out oninteresting scientific challenges, and potential insights, in a unique testing ground in one of the fewland masses in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this situation, a pilot project was launched inearly ...
South America has received less attention from the global numerical weather prediction communitythan many other regions. This is reflected, for example, in its absence as a region in the standardisedWMO verification score exchange. As a result, global modelling centres may have missed out oninteresting scientific challenges, and potential insights, in a unique testing ground in one of the fewland masses in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this situation, a pilot project was launched inearly 2024 by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the Joint WorkingGroup on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), partly in response to the requirements of theUnited Nations Early Warnings for All initiative (EW4All). This pilot project, led by the ArgentineNational Meteorological Service (SMN) and the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting(ECMWF), aims to explore the performance of global and regional forecasts over South America andtheir potential as early warning tools. For the sake of simplicity, we have focused mainly on theterritory of Argentina and on deterministic operational forecasts. This Technical Memorandumpresents the first results of the pilot project, focusing on two perspectives: a general statisticalverification of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) control operational forecast, and anin-depth evaluation of model performance in three individual High Impact Weather (HIW) eventswhich, due to their characteristics, are both of societal relevance and posing a challenge to models.Within the first perspective, temporally and/or spatially aggregated summary verification statistics areproduced for upper air variables by comparing forecasts with their own analysis, and for surfacevariables by comparing surface forecast fields with SYNOP station data. In addition, the IFSdeterministic operational forecast is compared with other global models and with a limited area modelover the South America region. Within the second perspective, three individual case studies coveringHIW events with very different characteristics are analysed: a convective storm causing severe winddamage and loss of life, a strong Zonda wind (Foehn) on the lee side of the Andes, and a prolongedheat wave.
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Palabras Clave
Regional ModelsSouth AmericaVerification