Optimización multidimensional del sistema previsional argentino

Tesis

Resumen

In order to optimize the multidimensional performance of the Argentine pension system, the thesis proposes an optimization model subject to restrictions whose objective function is to minimize the inequity that results from the interaction between the three large dimensions of pension performance, namely: i) coverage, ii) adequacy of benefits and iii) sustainability. To achieve this goal, it was necessary to introduce the pension system as a subject of study of economic theory and of two important international organizations, who carried out an extensive debate about the optimal design of these social security subsystems in the 1990s. At the same time, the impact of demographic phenomena on the sustainability of pension systems was considered according to the theory of demographic dividends. Once the problem was set, the information contained in more than two thousands current or repealed norms that created, regulated or modified Argentine pension systems throughout its history since the beginning of the 20th century was compiled. The historical evolution of our pension system was thus constructed, systematizing the value of the main parameters and variables involved in its functioning. This effort allows contemplating past experiences to increase our understanding of the current situation and thinking about possible alternatives for the future. The next step consisted in the evaluation of the multidimensional performance of the pension system during the last twenty-three years, including the period that begins with the pension reform in July 1994 and ended in the fourth quarter of 2017. The three performance dimensions were assessed in general average terms, according to gender and income level, highlighting how the pension system performs in terms of equity. In the last step the optimization model is presented. To arrive at this model it was necessary to review the literature on pensions systems to assess how modeling, simulation and optimization tools are used. Likewise, the definition of the objective function was justified in aspects related to an hypothetical social welfare function from which it could be derived. To run the model, it was first calibrated based on population and sample information. Finally, in order to analyze the results, sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the robustness of the results and the reflections and considerations that arise from them were presented. To conclude, we interpret and discuss the results. It is concluded that the complexity of real problems poses a challenge, and that economic theory should strive to use all the tools at its disposal to incorporate an adequate level of realism to the assumptions from which it departs. This may be to the detriment of parsimony but in favor of offering viable solutions that can be considered useful by decision makers in the social security field.

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http://hdl.handle.net/11336/84057